December 9, 2016

Mtechtips MCX-SX USDINR INTRADAY trading analysis 16-09-2016

MTECHTIPS Dollar/rupee opened at near one-week low Friday on likely overseas inflows into local stocks and tracking weakness in dollar index after release of disappointing data from the world’s biggest economy dampened prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the month of September.The greenback traded marginally lower after weaker-than expected US data triggered a delay in investor expectations for a US interest-rate increase, spurring a rally in risk assets.US Census Bureau said that August retail sales edged lower for the first time since March led by weak purchases of automobiles.Retail sales fell to 0.3% in August to $456.32 billion compared to an an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in July.  Further, Industrial production declined to its lowest level since March.US industrial production shrank to a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in August compared to 0.6% growth in July, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.   Also, capacity utilization edged lower in Aug to 75.5% from 75.9% a month ago, missing analysts expectations of 75.7%.South Korean, Chinese, Taiwanese and Hong Kong markets are closed for holidays.The Bank of England on Thursday maintained its level of asset purchases, with attention now switching to the Fed and the Bank of Japan, both of which meet to review policy next week.Locally, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $7.67 billion in August from $7.76 billion a month earlier due to sharp fall in imports, data released by government showed Thursday.Federal Reserve Bank and Bank of Japan will hold their two-day monetary policy meeting on Sep 20-21.The greenback traded marginally lower after weaker-than expected US data triggered a delay in investor expectations for a US interest-rate increase, spurring a rally in risk assets.Technical, USDINRtraded in between small range 67.05-67.20 and settled at 67.1075. Pair was unable to break its immediate resistance 67.25 for third consecutive day which is coinciding with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its previous fall. Hence, in short time pair expects to remain in between 66.90-67.20 unless it gives an either side break. Further, 67.25 will act as a massive resistance and pair would need to trade above it in order to test 67.45-67.65

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