December 5, 2016

Mtechtips MCX-SX USDINR INTRADAY trading analysis 13-10-2016
MTECHTIPS Dollar/rupee open at 66.9125 up 0.35% and the dollar index has breached its highest level in seven months during early Asian trades Thursday as investors’ prospects for a Federal Reserve rate hike buoyed following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee September meeting minutes. Technical, USDINR retraced from 23.8% Fibonacci retracement and settled at 66.66 compare to previous close of 66.8575. Since 3 Oct 2016, pair struggling to break its immediate resistance 67.10 and consolidation around 66.75-66.90 levels which yet creating probability for weakness in days to come. On the other hand, strong resistance is seen at 67.25 and pair would need to trade above 67.25 in order to test 67.55-67.70 Short term sell could expect on every rise 67.00-67.10 with stop loss above 67.25. Financial markets were closed in India on Tuesday and Wednesday for Desarra and Muharrum.The greenback appreciated against its major peers and breached its highest level since Mar 11 after the release of FOMC Sep 20-21 monetary policy meeting minutes.The Fed minutes showed the US central bank was moving closer to raising interest rates this year. However, the minutes described the decision to maintain a status quo.In the September policy, three FOMC voting members, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren had voted to raise rates by a quarter points.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Wednesday the likely path of the economy will allow the Fed to proceed with slow, incremental rate hikes.On the economic front, US job openings fell to eight-month low in the month of August and hiring was little changed.

Labour Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported Wednesday that US continued to point to a solid jobs market, with a steady rise in the number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs and declining layoffs. Job openings declined 388,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.4 million, the lowest level since December, after surging to a record high in July.India’s retail inflation may have eased in September on account of moderation in food prices, especially pulses, fruits and vegetables a survey of economists showed last Thursday.India’s consumer price index-based inflation may have fallen substantially to 4.75% in September — the lowest since September 2015 — compared with 5.05% in August, according to the median estimate of 10 economists polled by Ticker News.
The expectation lies marginally within the top end of the band of the inflation target set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and is below the 5% target set for March 2017. .
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