February 19, 2017

mcx tips


A stronger U.S. Dollar helped push gold prices lower on Wednesday and in a position to finish August with a monthly loss.
On Wednesday was the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for August. It showed the private sector added 177,000 jobs this month. Economists were looking for 175,000. Mostly, however, it likely means that Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report will come in at 177,000 or better.
Fed rate hike next month have risen from 18% to about 25%. The chances of an increase in December is up to 55% from 50%.

Crude Oil extended their earlier losses on Wednesday, following the release of a government report that showed another increase in stockpiles.
The supply and demand data suggests there is not a lot to support oil because stocks are still at very high levels. Additionally, even bullish traders are getting a little tired of the headlines calling for a production freeze since they don’t mean anything without actual action.
Also weighing on prices on Wednesday were comments from Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid al-Falih, who said that the top crude exporter does not have a specific target figure for its oil production and that its output depends on the needs of customers.
We expect to see further downside pressure today due to the bearish EIA report and provided the U.S. Dollar maintains its strength.
Bulls tried they could not hold on to the price level. Regardless of an agreement if one is even possible, the fundamentals of supply and demand will not just disappear overnight. A quota or just an agreement to limit or cut production will have an effect on future prices but little on spot or current months. Original estimates that it will take until 2020 to use the current surplus remain valid. Global manufacturing and growth remain weak and the world is slowly shifting away from carbon fossil fuels which should eventually reduce demand.
Iaqi Oil Minister’s first action last week being to request foreign companies to boost production and exports in Iraq.

LME copper should range between USD 4,610~4,650/mt on Thursday and SHFE 1610 copper will fluctuate at RMB 36,200~36,550/mt.
The selling pressure on copper wasn’t that strong because the market is down nine days from its top at $2.2000 on August 18 and down 22 days from its top at $2.2570 on August 1. To technical traders, the market is at or nearing oversold territory especially since it is within shouting distance of the June 9 bottom at $2.0315.
Rising inventories of copper in LME-approved warehouses, up more than 80,000 tonnes since the middle of August to 293,525 tonnes, have also weighed on copper prices.
Mexican National Statistics Institute (Inegi) data show domestic copper output grew 11.9% year-on-year in June.
Chile’s copper production was 448,000 tonnes in July, down 1.5% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month, according to Chilean government.


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